PropertyMesh Research

Ontario Market Heat Index

How fast homes sell, how often they fetch asking price, and how much room buyers have to negotiate — measured city by city from MLS sold data, with relisting chains merged so the numbers reflect a home's full time on the market.

Period
Rolling 90 days
Status
LIVE
Last updated
October 15, 2026
Eligible sales
32,837
Qualifying cities
106
Methodology
v1.1 · notes

Rolling snapshot of the last 90 days (2026-07-20 to 2026-10-17). These figures update nightly as new sold data arrives and are not final — quarterly figures are finalized and frozen after each quarter closes.

Ontario at a Glance — Rolling 90 days

27 days
Median market time (CDOM, days)
unchanged vs 2026 Q3
54.0%
Sold within 30 days (%)
-0.6 pts vs 2026 Q3
20.1%
Sold at/above original asking (%)
-0.3 pts vs 2026 Q3
96.4%
Median sale-to-original-list ratio
-0.1 pts vs 2026 Q3
16.4%
Listings with a price reduction (%)
-0.6 pts vs 2026 Q3
partial history — see methodology
4.8%
Median discount when below asking (%)
+0.1 pts vs 2026 Q3

City Rankings — Rolling 90 days

All property types · sorted by reduction rate — click any column to re-sort, click a city for its history. Cities below the disclosure floor (50 eligible sales) are listed but not ranked.

Reduction rate: Share of sold homes that cut their asking price at least once before selling. Higher = sellers are having to lower expectations (cooler market).
What does each column mean?
Sales:
How many eligible home sales the numbers are based on — more sales = more reliable numbers.
Median market time:
How many days the typical home takes to sell, counting from when it first hit the market (relistings included). Fewer days = hotter market.
Sold ≤ 30 days:
Share of homes that sold within a month. Higher = hotter market.
At/above asking:
Share of homes that sold for the original asking price or more. Higher = sellers are getting their price (hotter market).
Sale ÷ original ask:
The typical sale price as a share of the first asking price. 100% = homes sell for exactly what sellers first asked; below 100% = buyers pay less.
Reduction rate:
Share of sold homes that cut their asking price at least once before selling. Higher = sellers are having to lower expectations (cooler market).
Median discount:
When a home does sell below asking, this is the typical discount buyers got.
City ranking with median market time, sold-within-30-days share, at-or-above-asking share, sale-to-original-list ratio, price-reduction rate and median discount. Click a column heading to sort; click a city for its historical trend.
1Tillsonburg8241 days40.2%7.3%95.3%30.5%5.3%
2Pembroke5644 days33.9%10.7%95.7%30.4%4.8%
3Dysart Et Al6040 days40.0%13.3%93.4%30.0%8.1%
4Haldimand12234 days45.1%12.3%95.0%29.5%6.1%
5Midland6648 days34.8%3.0%94.3%28.8%5.9%
6Cornwall16030 days50.6%15.0%96.4%28.1%4.3%
7Saugeen Shores7546 days38.7%21.3%95.7%28.0%7.1%
8Port Colborne6334 days46.0%11.1%94.9%27.0%5.6%
9Trent Hills6349 days28.6%11.1%93.4%27.0%7.6%
10Russell6742 days47.8%10.4%97.4%26.9%2.9%
11South Stormont5231 days50.0%23.1%96.0%26.9%5.5%
12Fort Erie15446 days37.7%5.2%94.1%26.6%6.3%
13Brighton5342 days41.5%13.2%95.4%26.4%5.5%
14Stratford9934 days47.5%23.2%97.0%26.3%4.9%
15Niagara Falls28933 days45.3%13.1%95.3%26.0%5.6%
16Quinte West15038 days41.3%14.7%96.0%25.3%5.0%
17Brockville7346 days40.3%19.2%95.6%24.7%5.0%
18Welland17033 days47.6%7.6%95.6%24.7%4.9%
19Erin5345 days28.3%3.8%93.2%24.5%7.0%
20North Grenville7849 days34.6%17.9%96.2%24.4%4.9%
21Clearview5838 days41.4%8.6%94.4%24.1%6.0%
22Norfolk10037 days42.0%9.0%95.5%24.0%5.0%
23St. Thomas13625 days57.4%16.2%96.6%23.5%4.0%
24Cobourg7734 days46.8%10.4%95.9%23.4%4.6%
25Centre Wellington13336 days44.4%10.5%95.5%23.3%5.4%
26Woodstock14228 days54.2%14.1%96.2%23.2%4.3%
27Huntsville10946 days37.6%12.8%94.8%22.9%6.4%
28St. Catharines34127 days56.0%10.9%96.0%22.9%5.0%
29Georgina16828 days54.8%10.1%95.2%22.6%5.5%
30Scugog7127 days52.1%14.1%96.1%22.5%4.7%
31Orillia13633 days47.1%8.1%95.5%22.1%5.0%
32Tiny7343 days35.6%5.5%91.2%21.9%9.0%
33Brantford19731 days49.7%11.7%96.3%21.8%4.3%
34Springwater7430 days51.4%10.8%96.3%21.6%4.5%
35Collingwood12238 days43.4%6.6%94.7%21.3%5.8%
36Petawawa5228 days59.6%17.3%97.1%21.2%4.4%
37Frontenac10044 days39.0%9.0%92.9%21.0%7.7%
38Belleville17730 days51.4%13.6%96.4%20.9%4.6%
39Kingston34828 days52.3%15.5%96.1%20.4%4.9%
40Kincardine5929 days50.8%16.9%96.0%20.3%4.8%
41New Tecumseth13830 days51.4%11.6%96.3%20.3%4.8%
42Thorold7426 days56.8%17.6%96.1%20.3%4.7%
43Kawartha Lakes28738 days41.5%11.5%94.3%20.2%6.4%
44Ingersoll5031 days50.0%22.0%96.5%20.0%4.2%
45Hamilton1,05229 days51.5%14.2%96.0%19.8%4.8%
46Prince Edward County9852 days35.7%9.2%95.2%19.4%5.8%
47London1,04229 days51.9%15.5%96.1%18.9%4.8%
48Pelham5327 days58.5%17.0%96.8%18.9%3.9%
49Uxbridge5334 days47.2%9.4%96.4%18.9%4.3%
50Whitchurch-stouffville12830 days50.8%19.5%96.7%18.8%4.3%
51Wasaga Beach11936 days44.5%9.2%94.8%18.5%5.3%
52Brant8238 days37.8%19.5%96.2%18.3%4.5%
53Gravenhurst5537 days40.0%14.5%94.9%18.2%6.7%
54Orangeville8328 days56.6%13.3%96.5%18.1%4.1%
55Owen Sound6141 days42.6%6.6%95.5%18.0%4.8%
56Niagara-on-the-lake7841 days39.7%3.8%94.7%17.9%5.4%
57Severn6234 days46.8%8.1%93.9%17.7%6.8%
58Cambridge26825 days56.7%32.1%97.7%17.5%4.3%
59Ottawa2,56426 days56.0%18.9%97.2%17.4%3.6%
60South Bruce Peninsula5236 days42.3%13.5%95.2%17.3%7.5%
61Clarence-rockland8934 days49.4%13.5%96.9%16.9%3.4%
62Guelph38526 days55.3%15.8%97.0%16.9%3.9%
63Strathroy-caradoc7130 days50.7%15.5%97.0%16.9%3.4%
64Burlington56624 days59.2%16.4%96.5%16.6%4.3%
65Loyalist7330 days52.1%15.1%97.1%16.4%3.4%
66Selwyn6133 days45.9%14.8%96.0%16.4%6.3%
67Caledon18534 days47.0%9.7%95.0%16.2%5.5%
68Barrie42927 days53.8%11.9%96.6%15.9%4.0%
69Peterborough23224 days60.3%10.8%96.4%15.9%4.1%
70Aurora14631 days49.3%18.5%96.7%15.8%4.1%
71Carleton Place5133 days47.1%5.9%96.7%15.7%3.6%
72Lincoln8531 days48.2%10.6%96.3%15.3%4.5%
73East Gwillimbury8826 days54.5%22.7%96.8%14.8%4.4%
74Bracebridge9022 days57.8%16.7%95.9%14.4%5.6%
75Oakville53627 days55.2%14.6%95.7%14.4%5.1%
76Mississauga1,30928 days54.2%19.6%96.4%14.1%4.8%
77Kitchener44221 days66.7%39.8%98.6%13.8%3.9%
78Muskoka Lakes8035 days45.0%16.3%94.0%13.8%7.3%
79Port Hope7327 days54.8%11.0%96.6%13.7%3.8%
80Milton35321 days65.7%17.3%97.2%13.3%3.4%
81Newmarket22223 days63.5%26.6%96.7%13.1%4.8%
82King6940 days46.4%8.7%93.4%13.0%7.0%
83Vaughan66828 days54.2%20.1%95.9%13.0%5.4%
84Innisfil15029 days51.3%13.3%95.6%12.7%4.8%
85Kenora6419 days78.1%60.9%100.6%12.5%5.6%
86Oshawa39921 days62.9%27.3%97.4%12.5%4.1%
87Clarington30020 days70.7%28.3%97.8%12.3%3.3%
88North Bay19215 days76.0%38.5%98.2%12.0%4.1%
89Essa5932 days47.5%5.1%95.7%11.9%4.5%
90Waterloo25221 days63.5%40.5%98.5%11.9%4.4%
91Middlesex Centre6036 days46.7%23.3%95.9%11.7%6.2%
92Greater Napanee5344 days32.1%7.5%96.0%11.3%4.4%
93Toronto5,50423 days59.5%25.2%96.6%11.2%4.9%
94Grimsby11223 days58.0%21.4%97.0%10.7%4.8%
95Markham73922 days62.4%36.1%97.3%10.4%4.9%
96Timmins14617 days76.0%66.4%103.6%10.3%5.9%
97Whitby30718 days71.3%21.8%97.5%10.1%3.5%
98Brampton1,20624 days59.9%20.7%96.6%10.0%4.4%
99Blue Mountains5246 days32.7%7.7%93.9%9.6%7.7%
100Pickering28123 days63.0%26.3%97.5%9.6%4.1%
101Richmond Hill46126 days55.1%32.5%96.8%9.3%5.2%
102Ajax23219 days70.7%31.0%98.1%8.6%3.4%
103Thunder Bay35816 days79.6%69.0%103.0%8.4%4.7%
104Halton Hills15120 days65.6%12.6%96.0%7.9%4.5%
105Bradford West Gwillimbury10222 days61.8%20.6%97.1%7.8%3.9%
106Oro-medonte6429 days53.1%10.9%96.3%6.3%4.1%

The shaded column (reduction rate) is coloured from cooler (blue) to hotter (red) market. Scroll the table sideways for more columns — the city column stays put.

On the Map — Reduction rate

Each dot is a qualifying city, colored by listings with a price reduction (%). Every mapped value also appears in the city ranking table above.

Reduction rate
CoolerHotter

City History — Niagara Falls

A quarterly, plain-English view of how quickly Niagara Falls homes sold (all property types), how often they sold at or above the original asking price, how often sellers reduced their price, and how many sales were included.

View quarter

2026 Q4 has 37 eligible sales, below the 50-sale disclosure floor — it is never used as a comparison base.

What changed in 2026 Q4

37 eligible sales were recorded — below the 50-sale disclosure floor, so treat this quarter as background only rather than a standalone market conclusion.

Sample strengthLow sample

37 eligible sales are below the 50-sale disclosure floor. Use this quarter as background only.

How many sales support this?
Total homes sold
37
−271 vs 2026 Q3
How quickly did homes sell?
Typical selling time
44 days
12 days slower vs 2026 Q3
How often was asking met?
Sold at/above asking
2.7%
−13.5 pts vs 2026 Q3
How often were prices cut?
Price reduction rate
32.4%
+7.4 pts vs 2026 Q3
How did sale compare to ask?
Sale-to-original-ask
94.4%
−1.4 pts vs 2026 Q3

1. Typical selling time

Median market time in days (relisting chains merged). Lower = homes generally sold faster.

020402026 Q22026 Q32026 Q4*2026 Q2: Typical selling time 43d43d2026 Q3: Typical selling time 32d32d2026 Q4: Typical selling time 44d (low sample)44d
Homes took 12 days longer to sell than in 2026 Q3.

2. Pricing behaviour

The two pricing measures are split into separate charts because their ranges are very different.

Sold at or above original asking

Share of sales that met or beat the seller's starting price.

0%10%20%2026 Q22026 Q32026 Q4*2026 Q2: Sold at or above original asking 11.8%11.8%2026 Q3: Sold at or above original asking 16.2%16.2%2026 Q4: Sold at or above original asking 2.7% (low sample)2.7%

Received a price reduction

Share of sold homes with at least one asking-price cut.

0%10%20%30%2026 Q22026 Q32026 Q4*2026 Q2: Received a price reduction 27.3%27.3%2026 Q3: Received a price reduction 25.0%25.0%2026 Q4: Received a price reduction 32.4% (low sample)32.4%

These answer different questions — a reduction rate is not the opposite of an at-or-above-asking rate, so read each on its own. Note the two charts use different scales.

Sale ÷ original ask100% = matched the original asking price

2026 Q4: 94.4% — the typical sale closed 5.6% below the original asking price.

Compared with 2026 Q3, the at/above-asking share moved −13.5 pts and the reduction rate moved +7.4 pts.

3. Total homes sold

Sales volume shown separately so it can't distort or compete with price and market-time metrics.

01002003002026 Q2: 238 eligible sales2382026 Q22026 Q3: 308 eligible sales3082026 Q32026 Q4: 37 eligible sales (low sample)372026 Q4*
A larger sample usually produces a more stable market reading. Quarters marked * are below the disclosure floor and shown for context only.

For buyers

In 2026 Q4, 32.4% of sold homes had a price reduction, while 2.7% still sold at or above the original asking price. Read both together rather than treating either as the whole picture.

For sellers

The typical sold home took 44 days to sell, and the typical sale-to-original-ask ratio was 94.4%. That describes completed sales in this period; it doesn't guarantee the same result for an individual property.

2026 Q4 summary for Niagara Falls: 37 homes sold; typical selling time 44 days; 2.7 percent sold at or above original asking; 32.4 percent received a price reduction; sale-to-original-ask ratio 94.4 percent.

Quarterly history for Niagara Falls
QuarterSalesMedian market timeAt/above askingReduction rateSale ÷ original ask
2026 Q223843 days11.8%27.3%94.9%
2026 Q330832 days16.2%25.0%95.8%
2026 Q4 *3744 days2.7%32.4%94.4%

* below the disclosure floor for that quarter.

Market speed — Rolling 90 days

How fast homes actually sell, measured on full relisting chains — a home relisted three times counts its whole time on market, not just the last listing.

27 days
Median market time (CDOM, days) (Ontario)
9.6%
Sold within 7 days (%) (Ontario)
27.4%
Sold within 14 days (%) (Ontario)
54.0%
Sold within 30 days (%) (Ontario)
23.6%
On market over 60 days (%) (Ontario)
City ranking with median market time, sold-within-30-days share, at-or-above-asking share, sale-to-original-list ratio, price-reduction rate and median discount. Click a column heading to sort; click a city for its historical trend.
1Prince Edward County9852 days4.1%15.3%35.7%43.9%
2Trent Hills6349 days3.2%9.5%28.6%47.6%
3North Grenville7849 days6.4%14.1%34.6%35.9%
4Midland6648 days7.6%13.6%34.8%40.9%
5Huntsville10946 days4.6%10.1%37.6%37.6%
6Saugeen Shores7546 days10.7%22.7%38.7%44.0%
7Blue Mountains5246 days7.7%17.3%32.7%46.2%
8Brockville7346 days4.2%16.7%40.3%36.1%
9Fort Erie15446 days3.9%13.6%37.7%42.9%
10Erin5345 days7.5%17.0%28.3%34.0%

Asking-price performance — Rolling 90 days

How sale prices compare with what sellers originally asked. Ratios use the first asking price of the relisting chain, so re-lists at a lower price cannot flatter the numbers.

20.1%
Sold at/above original asking (%) (Ontario)
96.4%
Median sale-to-original-list ratio (Ontario)
97.2%
Median sale-to-final-list ratio (Ontario)
City ranking with median market time, sold-within-30-days share, at-or-above-asking share, sale-to-original-list ratio, price-reduction rate and median discount. Click a column heading to sort; click a city for its historical trend.
1Thunder Bay35869.0%103.0%103.1%
2Timmins14666.4%103.6%103.5%
3Kenora6460.9%100.6%100.6%
4Waterloo25240.5%98.5%98.7%
5Kitchener44239.8%98.6%98.7%
6North Bay19238.5%98.2%98.4%
7Markham73936.1%97.3%97.6%
8Richmond Hill46132.5%96.8%97.1%
9Cambridge26832.1%97.7%98.0%
10Ajax23231.0%98.1%98.1%

Price reductions — Rolling 90 days

How often sellers cut the price before selling, how quickly, and by how much. Total reduction sums every observed cut against the original asking price.

16.4%
Listings with a price reduction (%) (Ontario)
32 days
Median days to first reduction (Ontario)
4.0%
Median first reduction (%) (Ontario)
4.3%
Median total reduction (% of original ask) (Ontario)

Price-change events have been captured in full since August 2026; earlier windows reflect the last observed change per listing only, so reduction figures for this period are a floor, not an exact rate.

City ranking with median market time, sold-within-30-days share, at-or-above-asking share, sale-to-original-list ratio, price-reduction rate and median discount. Click a column heading to sort; click a city for its historical trend.
1Tillsonburg8230.5%37 days3.2%5.2%
2Pembroke5630.4%24 days3.6%4.5%
3Dysart Et Al6030.0%32 days6.6%6.6%
4Haldimand12229.5%50 days4.1%4.1%
5Midland6628.8%36 days4.1%4.7%
6Cornwall16028.1%31 days3.5%3.6%
7Saugeen Shores7528.0%57 days3.3%3.3%
8Port Colborne6327.0%39 days4.3%4.2%
9Trent Hills6327.0%33 days4.2%5.5%
10Russell6726.9%29 days3.0%3.1%

Buyer negotiating room — Rolling 90 days

When homes sell below the original asking price, how large the gap typically is.

79.9%
Sold below original asking (%) (Ontario)
4.8%
Median discount when below asking (%) (Ontario)
City ranking with median market time, sold-within-30-days share, at-or-above-asking share, sale-to-original-list ratio, price-reduction rate and median discount. Click a column heading to sort; click a city for its historical trend.
1Midland6697.0%5.9%
2Erin5396.2%7.0%
3Niagara-on-the-lake7896.2%5.4%
4Essa5994.9%4.5%
5Fort Erie15494.8%6.3%
6Tiny7394.5%9.0%
7Carleton Place5194.1%3.6%
8Collingwood12293.4%5.8%
9Owen Sound6193.4%4.8%
10Tillsonburg8292.7%5.3%

Reports & Guides

Deeper analysis built on the same finalized snapshots, plus evergreen explainers for the metrics on this page.

The fastest-selling housing markets in Ontario

Median market time rankings, speed distribution and the biggest movers.

Where Ontario homes sell above asking

Above-ask rates and both sale-to-list ratios — with the list-low context.

Ontario home price reductions

Where sellers are cutting, how fast, and how deep.

Homebuyer negotiating room

Where the asking-to-sold gap is widest — and what it can’t promise.

Detached home market heat

The detached segment: speed, asking-price performance and reductions.

Condo market heat

Condo apartments, tracked separately from freehold.

Townhouse market heat

Freehold rows and condo townhouses, side by side.

City report: Whitby

Ontario’s fastest-selling market, up close.

City report: Kitchener

The province’s most competitive market on asking price.

City report: Hamilton

A big market where price reductions run high.

Toronto neighbourhoods (pilot)

Neighbourhood-level market speed — our below-city pilot.

Guide: Days on market (DOM), explained

What DOM measures and how relistings distort it.

Guide: Original vs final asking price

Why the first ask is the honest benchmark.

Guide: Home price reductions

Reading cut history as a buyer; timing a cut as a seller.

Guide: Sale-to-list price ratio

How to read 98% vs 103% — and the list-low trap.

Archive & Downloads

Every published period, including the current quarter-to-date snapshot. Preliminary figures change nightly; finalized periods are frozen and never change without a visible revision. CSV downloads include the full city × property-type aggregate table (plus the Toronto neighbourhood pilot rows) with methodology version and usage notes.

Usage conditions: figures are free to cite and republish in aggregate form with attribution to “PropertyMesh Ontario Market Heat Index” and a link back to this page. Don’t present them as official board statistics, strip the disclosure flags, or use them as investment advice — full rules in the methodology.

Historical archive of Market Heat Index periods
PeriodStatusSales analysedFinalizedDownload
2026 Q4Preliminary · quarter to date4,640Through October 15, 2026CSV
2026 Q3FINAL35,180October 2, 2026CSV
2026 Q2REVISED (rev 2)36,197August 27, 2026CSV

Methodology & Notes

Source. MLS sold records for Ontario resale residential properties (detached, semi-detached, freehold and condo townhouses, condo apartments), refreshed nightly. Sales are dated by the purchase-contract date.

Market time. The MLS feed does not provide a reliable cumulative days-on-market figure, so we compute our own: when a home is relisted (same address and unit, prior listing ending within a validated window), the listings are chained together and time on market accumulates across the whole chain.

Asking-price ratios. Sale-to-original-list uses the first asking price of the relisting chain — a home relisted at a lower price cannot flatter the ratio. Sale-to-final-list uses the sold listing's last asking price.

Price reductions. Reduction metrics count observed price-decrease events; the total reduction sums all cuts against the original asking price (increases are ignored). Full event capture began in August 2026 — periods starting earlier are flagged as partial and understate reduction activity.

Disclosure floors. City figures require at least 50 eligible sales for the period (25 per property-type cut). Cells below the floor are shown as “insufficient data” rather than ranked — small samples produce unstable, misleading rates.

Coverage. Figures are based on TRREB (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board) transactions via the PropTx feed. Coverage of the Greater Toronto Area is comprehensive; outside the GTA, only sales involving a TRREB member are captured, so coverage is partial and cities below the disclosure floor are shown but not ranked. The series starts in Q3 2025; the feed's historical coverage before that is incomplete and would misstate the market. Toronto MLS districts are merged into Toronto, and London's feed subdivisions are merged into London.

Frozen periods. Completed quarters and years are finalized and frozen: their published values never change silently. Corrections are released as visible revisions with a reason.

Privacy & rights. Everything published here is an aggregate that meets the disclosure floors above. Individual sold prices are not shown on this page; listing-level sold data is available on PropertyMesh behind a free sign-in, per MLS data rules.

Citing this data. Free to cite with attribution to PropertyMesh (“PropertyMesh Ontario Market Heat Index”). Each archived period has a CSV download with the full aggregate table, methodology version and usage notes. For questions or custom cuts, contact us.