PropertyMesh Research

Ontario Market Heat Index

How fast homes sell, how often they fetch asking price, and how much room buyers have to negotiate — measured city by city from MLS sold data, with relisting chains merged so the numbers reflect a home's full time on the market.

Period
2026 Q2
Status
REVISED (rev 2)
Last updated
August 27, 2026
Eligible sales
36,197
Qualifying cities
103
Methodology
v1.1 · notes

Filtered view — reset to the full index.

2026-Q2 — finalized August 27, 2026 · methodology v1.1 · 36,197 sales analysed

Ontario at a Glance — 2026 Q2

28 days
Median market time (CDOM, days)
vs 2026 Q1
53.0%
Sold within 30 days (%)
vs 2026 Q1
23.0%
Sold at/above original asking (%)
vs 2026 Q1
96.5%
Median sale-to-original-list ratio
vs 2026 Q1
17.2%
Listings with a price reduction (%)
vs 2026 Q1
partial history — see methodology
5.0%
Median discount when below asking (%)
vs 2026 Q1

Quarterly commentary · Ontario · all property types · 2026 Q2

What Ontario's Q2 housing data means for buyers and sellers

Ontario's resale market gave buyers more negotiating room than the headline pace alone might suggest. The provincial average also concealed a wide divide between property types and local markets.

Final · revised rev 2

Ontario overview

Across 36,197 eligible sales, Ontario's median cumulative days on market was 28. Just over half of homes, 53.0%, sold within 30 days, while 24.1% remained on the market for more than 60 days.

Pricing outcomes leaned below sellers' initial expectations. Only 23.0% of homes sold at or above their original asking price, while 77.0% sold below it. Among homes that sold below original asking, the median discount was approximately 5.0%. The result was a negotiation-heavy market, but not a uniform one: municipal and property-type differences were substantial.

Five verified findings

Finding 0177.0%

77.0% of Ontario sales closed below the original asking price.

Finding 0228 days

28 days was Ontario's median cumulative market time.

Finding 0335.5%

Norfolk's 35.5% observed reduction rate was the highest among qualifying cities. Q2 price-change history is partial, so this is an observed floor rather than a complete estimate.

Finding 0479.3%

79.3% of Thunder Bay sales met or exceeded original asking, the highest qualifying city result, compared with 23.0% provincially.

Finding 05 · median CDOMProperty-type divide

Condo apartments sold materially more slowly than the selected ground-related freehold categories.

42 dayscondo apartment25 daysdetached27 daysfreehold townhouse

Property-type differences

Condo apartments moved considerably more slowly than detached homes and freehold townhouses. The typical condo apartment took 17 days longer to sell than a detached home and 15 days longer than a freehold townhouse. Condo apartments also had the highest below-original-asking share of the three selected categories at 86.6%, compared with 76.3% for detached homes and 74.0% for freehold townhouses.

Ontario 2026 Q2 results for selected property types
Property typeEligible salesMedian CDOMSold within 30 daysAt/above original askBelow original ask
Condo apartment5,52642 days39.4%13.4%86.6%
Detached22,48525 days55.7%23.7%76.3%
Freehold townhouse3,34927 days54.5%26.0%74.0%

Key difference: the typical condo apartment took 17 days longer to sell than a detached home and 15 days longer than a freehold townhouse.

What the quarter means in practice

For sellers

Price for the property and the local market

The province-wide results favour accurate, property-specific pricing over aspirational list prices. A 77.0% below-original-asking rate does not prove that every home was overpriced, but it shows that the original list price frequently did not survive the negotiation process.

Sellers should use recent comparable sales for the same property type and municipality rather than treating Ontario's 28-day median as a promised timeline. Condo apartment sellers, in particular, should prepare for longer exposure. Norfolk's 35.5% figure should be described as the highest observed reduction rate because Q2 price-change history is partial.

For buyers

Negotiating room existed, but it was not universal

Longer market times and a high below-original-asking rate created measurable negotiating room across much of the province, especially in the condo apartment segment. Buyers can use cumulative market time, relisting history and price changes to assess a seller's position.

The provincial figure is not an automatic discount on every listing. Thunder Bay moved in the opposite direction: 79.3% of qualifying sales met or exceeded original asking, and the median market time was 12 days. Local comparable sales and the individual listing history remain essential.

Broker commentary

Ontario's Q2 data shows a market where realistic pricing mattered. Across 36,197 eligible sales, 77% of homes closed below their original asking price, and the median home took 28 cumulative days to sell.

But Ontario was not moving at one speed. Condo apartments took a median of 42 days to sell, compared with 25 days for detached homes and 27 days for freehold townhouses. Norfolk recorded the highest observed price-reduction rate among qualifying municipalities at 35.5%, while Thunder Bay was at the opposite end of the market, with 79.3% of sales meeting or exceeding the original asking price.

For sellers, the lesson is to price according to the specific property type and local market rather than relying on a province-wide headline. For buyers, the Ontario average may indicate negotiating room, but it should be treated as a starting point, not a substitute for local comparable sales and the history of the individual listing.

FAFaiza Ahmed
Ontario Real Estate Broker and Founder of PropertyMesh.ca

Methodology note

How to interpret the 2026 Q2 figures

The period covers purchase contracts dated April 1 through June 30, 2026. Cumulative days on market links qualifying relistings and measures time from the beginning of the listing chain. Original-asking-price metrics use the earliest original price in that chain rather than allowing a later relisting or reduction to reset the comparison.

City-level results require at least 50 eligible sales, while city-and-property-type cuts require at least 25. The figures are based on TRREB member-reported transactions delivered through the PropTx feed. Coverage is comprehensive in the Greater Toronto Area but partial outside it.

Q2 price-reduction metrics are partial because complete price-change-event capture began in August 2026. Reduction rates for this period are observed floors, not complete estimates of every reduction that occurred.

Read the full Ontario Market Heat Index methodology for definitions, disclosure floors, coverage limitations and revision rules.

Source: PropertyMesh Ontario Market Heat Index, 2026 Q2, final · revised rev 2. Aggregate historical market information only. These figures are not official board statistics, a valuation of any individual property or investment advice.

Data analysis: PropertyMesh research pipeline (frozen snapshot). Drafting: AI-assisted, verified against the frozen data. Fact-checked by: [email protected]. Expert commentary and final review: Faiza Ahmed. Published: 2026-08-27 · Methodology: Version 1.1.

City Rankings — 2026 Q2

All property types · sorted by median market time — click any column to re-sort, click a city for its history. Cities below the disclosure floor (50 eligible sales) are listed but not ranked.

Median market time: How many days the typical home takes to sell, counting from when it first hit the market (relistings included). Fewer days = hotter market.
What does each column mean?
Sales:
How many eligible home sales the numbers are based on — more sales = more reliable numbers.
Median market time:
How many days the typical home takes to sell, counting from when it first hit the market (relistings included). Fewer days = hotter market.
Sold ≤ 30 days:
Share of homes that sold within a month. Higher = hotter market.
At/above asking:
Share of homes that sold for the original asking price or more. Higher = sellers are getting their price (hotter market).
Sale ÷ original ask:
The typical sale price as a share of the first asking price. 100% = homes sell for exactly what sellers first asked; below 100% = buyers pay less.
Reduction rate:
Share of sold homes that cut their asking price at least once before selling. Higher = sellers are having to lower expectations (cooler market).
Median discount:
When a home does sell below asking, this is the typical discount buyers got.
City ranking with median market time, sold-within-30-days share, at-or-above-asking share, sale-to-original-list ratio, price-reduction rate and median discount. Click a column heading to sort; click a city for its historical trend.
1Wasaga Beach18756 days28.3%6.4%95.5%19.8%4.9%
2Tillsonburg7654 days27.6%10.5%95.4%32.9%5.5%
3Blue Mountains5152 days29.4%2.0%92.9%19.6%7.3%
4Central Elgin5151 days35.3%17.6%94.9%27.5%6.2%
5Norfolk11050 days35.5%13.6%94.0%35.5%7.1%
6Haldimand12747 days35.4%11.8%95.1%27.6%5.7%
7Pelham7145 days39.4%16.9%96.1%11.3%5.1%
8Collingwood12043 days35.8%7.5%95.0%24.2%5.3%
9Niagara Falls23843 days42.4%11.8%94.9%27.3%5.9%
10Fort Erie13942 days42.4%7.2%94.6%28.8%6.0%
11Springwater6942 days36.2%17.4%96.1%11.6%4.5%
12Bradford West Gwillimbury12940 days38.0%14.0%95.1%20.9%5.4%
13Grimsby8740 days43.7%13.8%95.9%23.0%4.5%
14New Tecumseth12340 days39.0%13.0%95.8%15.4%4.7%
15Huntsville10840 days43.5%11.1%94.5%20.4%6.6%
16Russell7639 days40.8%15.8%97.1%22.4%3.9%
17Carleton Place7239 days38.9%16.7%97.5%27.8%3.5%
18Prince Edward County10639 days43.4%20.8%95.6%14.2%5.7%
19Clarence-rockland11538 days40.9%16.5%97.3%19.1%3.8%
20Middlesex Centre6538 days42.2%21.5%95.6%20.0%6.6%
21Tiny5538 days49.1%10.9%94.5%16.4%5.7%
22Niagara-on-the-lake8438 days41.7%6.0%94.9%20.2%5.4%
23Erin5037 days42.0%12.0%95.7%20.0%5.9%
24Belleville20837 days42.8%19.2%96.5%23.6%4.8%
25Bracebridge7336 days45.2%9.6%94.6%21.9%5.8%
26Georgina17236 days45.3%17.4%95.7%16.3%5.2%
27Innisfil16036 days45.6%13.8%95.2%8.8%6.1%
28King5736 days43.9%12.3%92.4%12.3%8.1%
29Trent Hills6036 days48.3%20.0%95.1%21.7%6.0%
30Kawartha Lakes28735 days47.4%14.6%95.1%22.3%5.7%
31Loyalist8535 days43.5%20.0%96.7%12.9%4.0%
32Oro-medonte7735 days46.8%13.0%95.8%16.9%5.8%
33Welland19435 days42.3%11.9%95.0%27.8%5.7%
34Port Colborne5635 days42.9%10.7%94.0%33.9%6.5%
35Barrie48734 days47.2%14.8%95.8%17.5%4.9%
36Quinte West20334 days46.8%29.6%97.2%24.1%4.6%
37St. Thomas14334 days46.9%18.2%95.6%28.7%6.4%
38Thorold9434 days44.7%20.2%95.4%24.5%5.4%
39Oakville74333 days47.4%13.2%94.8%18.4%6.2%
40Richmond Hill56033 days45.7%30.9%96.1%14.6%6.5%
41Dysart Et Al6233 days46.8%25.8%95.8%17.7%6.3%
42Frontenac10833 days48.1%21.3%96.7%18.5%4.4%
43Brant8132 days49.4%19.8%97.1%13.6%4.2%
44Essa9132 days49.5%14.3%96.8%13.2%4.6%
45North Grenville8232 days48.8%20.7%97.8%19.5%3.4%
46Aurora18231 days48.9%25.3%95.7%14.3%6.7%
47Brampton1,21931 days49.5%20.0%95.6%12.0%5.7%
48Caledon20231 days49.5%15.3%95.5%15.8%5.4%
49Mississippi Mills5931 days49.2%23.7%96.9%23.7%4.0%
50Scugog7231 days48.6%13.9%96.6%13.9%3.9%
51Cornwall14230 days50.7%20.4%97.0%30.3%4.2%
52Lincoln8930 days50.6%10.1%96.3%20.2%4.1%
53Milton38930 days50.9%18.8%96.3%17.0%5.4%
54Mississauga1,42630 days50.6%19.3%95.8%14.8%5.5%
55Orillia13330 days50.4%12.8%95.3%21.8%5.4%
56Owen Sound6930 days50.7%7.2%95.6%23.2%4.6%
57Whitchurch-stouffville13730 days50.4%25.5%96.9%14.6%4.8%
58Cobourg10030 days51.0%16.0%96.2%18.0%4.4%
59Guelph38829 days51.8%21.4%96.8%22.4%4.8%
60London1,22429 days51.3%20.3%96.4%20.0%4.7%
61Orangeville10329 days52.4%7.8%96.4%25.2%3.7%
62Peterborough29329 days52.6%19.2%96.7%22.5%4.1%
63Stratford12829 days52.3%27.3%96.5%28.9%5.3%
64Vaughan79629 days51.4%21.5%95.6%14.1%5.7%
65Brantford23328 days52.8%19.7%96.9%19.7%4.3%
66Brockville8628 days51.2%20.9%96.3%27.9%5.2%
67Hamilton1,28728 days52.4%16.1%95.6%22.5%5.4%
68Centre Wellington11327 days54.0%16.8%96.6%25.7%4.2%
69Selwyn7327 days52.1%17.8%95.1%21.9%6.5%
70Markham79726 days57.0%34.0%96.4%14.7%6.0%
71Saugeen Shores7126 days53.5%31.0%97.3%25.4%4.7%
72St. Catharines39926 days54.9%17.0%96.3%22.6%4.7%
73Kincardine6325 days61.9%23.8%97.2%15.9%4.3%
74Kingston48225 days57.7%16.6%97.1%12.4%3.7%
75The Nation5125 days52.9%17.6%97.1%29.4%4.0%
76Toronto6,19125 days55.9%28.2%96.4%13.1%5.9%
77Severn5825 days55.2%20.7%94.9%20.7%7.5%
78East Gwillimbury9924 days52.5%24.2%95.8%16.2%6.0%
79Newmarket24324 days58.0%16.5%96.0%16.5%4.9%
80Ottawa3,25024 days58.1%24.8%97.6%17.9%3.7%
81Pickering36024 days58.9%33.3%97.7%8.3%4.6%
82Uxbridge7123 days56.3%16.9%96.3%12.7%5.4%
83Woodstock20923 days60.8%20.1%97.0%23.0%3.7%
84Burlington69022 days58.7%19.7%96.3%17.1%4.7%
85Halton Hills16122 days60.9%19.3%96.3%14.9%4.4%
86Oshawa45522 days62.0%30.8%97.6%8.4%3.9%
87Cambridge36021 days64.7%45.3%99.1%14.7%4.1%
88Ajax27220 days66.2%33.1%97.7%8.1%4.0%
89Clarington35720 days64.1%29.1%97.7%9.2%4.0%
90Kitchener50720 days65.1%45.4%98.9%14.4%4.8%
91Muskoka Lakes5620 days67.9%10.7%94.9%16.1%5.7%
92Port Hope5920 days64.4%25.4%97.8%23.7%3.4%
93Waterloo27020 days63.3%47.4%99.3%12.6%4.7%
94Gravenhurst5020 days64.0%16.0%96.1%8.0%4.9%
95Pembroke5919 days69.5%27.1%97.5%25.4%3.6%
96Strathroy-caradoc9219 days66.3%21.7%96.9%15.2%4.5%
97Whitby37918 days65.4%31.4%98.2%9.5%3.8%
98Woolwich6418 days67.2%40.6%97.8%25.0%5.3%
99North Bay16915 days76.9%49.7%99.7%16.0%4.2%
100Petawawa13315 days77.4%30.8%99.0%24.1%2.1%
101Wilmot5915 days67.8%50.8%100.0%13.6%5.3%
102Timmins13313 days83.5%63.2%104.6%6.8%3.7%
103Thunder Bay8712 days90.8%79.3%107.1%3.4%3.1%

The shaded column (median market time) is coloured from cooler (blue) to hotter (red) market. Scroll the table sideways for more columns — the city column stays put.

On the Map — Median market time

Each dot is a qualifying city, colored by median market time (cdom, days). Every mapped value also appears in the city ranking table above.

Median market time
CoolerHotter

City History

Click a city in the ranking table above to see its quarterly history — market time, at/above-asking rate, reduction rate, ratio and sample size over time.

Market speed2026 Q2

How fast homes actually sell, measured on full relisting chains — a home relisted three times counts its whole time on market, not just the last listing.

28 days
Median market time (CDOM, days) (Ontario)
11.8%
Sold within 7 days (%) (Ontario)
29.8%
Sold within 14 days (%) (Ontario)
53.0%
Sold within 30 days (%) (Ontario)
24.1%
On market over 60 days (%) (Ontario)
City ranking with median market time, sold-within-30-days share, at-or-above-asking share, sale-to-original-list ratio, price-reduction rate and median discount. Click a column heading to sort; click a city for its historical trend.
1Wasaga Beach18756 days3.7%12.8%28.3%46.5%
2Tillsonburg7654 days3.9%10.5%27.6%44.7%
3Blue Mountains5152 days0.0%7.8%29.4%43.1%
4Central Elgin5151 days7.8%19.6%35.3%43.1%
5Norfolk11050 days3.6%17.3%35.5%45.5%
6Haldimand12747 days3.9%15.7%35.4%43.3%
7Pelham7145 days5.6%23.9%39.4%33.8%
8Collingwood12043 days6.7%15.8%35.8%38.3%
9Niagara Falls23843 days8.8%23.1%42.4%35.3%
10Fort Erie13942 days6.5%24.5%42.4%39.6%

Asking-price performance2026 Q2

How sale prices compare with what sellers originally asked. Ratios use the first asking price of the relisting chain, so re-lists at a lower price cannot flatter the numbers.

23.0%
Sold at/above original asking (%) (Ontario)
96.5%
Median sale-to-original-list ratio (Ontario)
97.7%
Median sale-to-final-list ratio (Ontario)
City ranking with median market time, sold-within-30-days share, at-or-above-asking share, sale-to-original-list ratio, price-reduction rate and median discount. Click a column heading to sort; click a city for its historical trend.
1Thunder Bay8779.3%107.1%107.1%
2Timmins13363.2%104.6%104.6%
3Wilmot5950.8%100.0%100.0%
4North Bay16949.7%99.7%100.0%
5Waterloo27047.4%99.3%98.9%
6Kitchener50745.4%98.9%99.2%
7Cambridge36045.3%99.1%99.1%
8Woolwich6440.6%97.8%99.3%
9Markham79734.0%96.4%97.4%
10Pickering36033.3%97.7%98.3%

Price reductions2026 Q2

How often sellers cut the price before selling, how quickly, and by how much. Total reduction sums every observed cut against the original asking price.

17.2%
Listings with a price reduction (%) (Ontario)
30 days
Median days to first reduction (Ontario)
3.8%
Median first reduction (%) (Ontario)
3.8%
Median total reduction (% of original ask) (Ontario)

Price-change events have been captured in full since August 2026; earlier windows reflect the last observed change per listing only, so reduction figures for this period are a floor, not an exact rate.

City ranking with median market time, sold-within-30-days share, at-or-above-asking share, sale-to-original-list ratio, price-reduction rate and median discount. Click a column heading to sort; click a city for its historical trend.
1Norfolk11035.5%51 days3.6%3.6%
2Port Colborne5633.9%43 days5.0%5.0%
3Tillsonburg7632.9%59 days3.2%3.0%
4Cornwall14230.3%35 days2.8%2.8%
5The Nation5129.4%29 days4.3%4.3%
6Stratford12828.9%35 days3.2%3.2%
7Fort Erie13928.8%57 days3.5%3.5%
8St. Thomas14328.7%49 days4.3%4.0%
9Brockville8627.9%30 days4.8%4.4%
10Carleton Place7227.8%28 days2.4%2.2%

Buyer negotiating room2026 Q2

When homes sell below the original asking price, how large the gap typically is.

77.0%
Sold below original asking (%) (Ontario)
5.0%
Median discount when below asking (%) (Ontario)
City ranking with median market time, sold-within-30-days share, at-or-above-asking share, sale-to-original-list ratio, price-reduction rate and median discount. Click a column heading to sort; click a city for its historical trend.
1Blue Mountains5198.0%7.3%
2Niagara-on-the-lake8494.0%5.4%
3Wasaga Beach18793.6%4.9%
4Fort Erie13992.8%6.0%
5Owen Sound6992.8%4.6%
6Collingwood12092.5%5.3%
7Orangeville10392.2%3.7%
8Bracebridge7390.4%5.8%
9Lincoln8989.9%4.1%
10Tillsonburg7689.5%5.5%

Reports & Guides

Deeper analysis built on the same finalized snapshots, plus evergreen explainers for the metrics on this page.

The fastest-selling housing markets in Ontario

Median market time rankings, speed distribution and the biggest movers.

Where Ontario homes sell above asking

Above-ask rates and both sale-to-list ratios — with the list-low context.

Ontario home price reductions

Where sellers are cutting, how fast, and how deep.

Homebuyer negotiating room

Where the asking-to-sold gap is widest — and what it can’t promise.

Detached home market heat

The detached segment: speed, asking-price performance and reductions.

Condo market heat

Condo apartments, tracked separately from freehold.

Townhouse market heat

Freehold rows and condo townhouses, side by side.

City report: Whitby

Ontario’s fastest-selling market, up close.

City report: Kitchener

The province’s most competitive market on asking price.

City report: Hamilton

A big market where price reductions run high.

Toronto neighbourhoods (pilot)

Neighbourhood-level market speed — our below-city pilot.

Guide: Days on market (DOM), explained

What DOM measures and how relistings distort it.

Guide: Original vs final asking price

Why the first ask is the honest benchmark.

Guide: Home price reductions

Reading cut history as a buyer; timing a cut as a seller.

Guide: Sale-to-list price ratio

How to read 98% vs 103% — and the list-low trap.

Archive & Downloads

Every published period, including the current quarter-to-date snapshot. Preliminary figures change nightly; finalized periods are frozen and never change without a visible revision. CSV downloads include the full city × property-type aggregate table (plus the Toronto neighbourhood pilot rows) with methodology version and usage notes.

Usage conditions: figures are free to cite and republish in aggregate form with attribution to “PropertyMesh Ontario Market Heat Index” and a link back to this page. Don’t present them as official board statistics, strip the disclosure flags, or use them as investment advice — full rules in the methodology.

Historical archive of Market Heat Index periods
PeriodStatusSales analysedFinalizedDownload
2026 Q3Preliminary · quarter to date23,362Through August 31, 2026CSV
2026 Q2REVISED (rev 2)36,197August 27, 2026CSV

Methodology & Notes

Source. MLS sold records for Ontario resale residential properties (detached, semi-detached, freehold and condo townhouses, condo apartments), refreshed nightly. Sales are dated by the purchase-contract date.

Market time. The MLS feed does not provide a reliable cumulative days-on-market figure, so we compute our own: when a home is relisted (same address and unit, prior listing ending within a validated window), the listings are chained together and time on market accumulates across the whole chain.

Asking-price ratios. Sale-to-original-list uses the first asking price of the relisting chain — a home relisted at a lower price cannot flatter the ratio. Sale-to-final-list uses the sold listing's last asking price.

Price reductions. Reduction metrics count observed price-decrease events; the total reduction sums all cuts against the original asking price (increases are ignored). Full event capture began in August 2026 — periods starting earlier are flagged as partial and understate reduction activity.

Disclosure floors. City figures require at least 50 eligible sales for the period (25 per property-type cut). Cells below the floor are shown as “insufficient data” rather than ranked — small samples produce unstable, misleading rates.

Coverage. Figures are based on TRREB (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board) transactions via the PropTx feed. Coverage of the Greater Toronto Area is comprehensive; outside the GTA, only sales involving a TRREB member are captured, so coverage is partial and cities below the disclosure floor are shown but not ranked. The series starts in Q3 2025; the feed's historical coverage before that is incomplete and would misstate the market. Toronto MLS districts are merged into Toronto, and London's feed subdivisions are merged into London.

Frozen periods. Completed quarters and years are finalized and frozen: their published values never change silently. Corrections are released as visible revisions with a reason.

Privacy & rights. Everything published here is an aggregate that meets the disclosure floors above. Individual sold prices are not shown on this page; listing-level sold data is available on PropertyMesh behind a free sign-in, per MLS data rules.

Citing this data. Free to cite with attribution to PropertyMesh (“PropertyMesh Ontario Market Heat Index”). Each archived period has a CSV download with the full aggregate table, methodology version and usage notes. For questions or custom cuts, contact us.