PropertyMesh Research

Ontario Market Heat Index

How fast homes sell, how often they fetch asking price, and how much room buyers have to negotiate — measured city by city from MLS sold data, with relisting chains merged so the numbers reflect a home's full time on the market.

Period
2026 Q4
Status
Preliminary · quarter to date
Through
October 15, 2026
Eligible sales
4,640
Qualifying cities
17
Methodology
v1.1 · notes

Filtered view — reset to the full index.

Preliminary quarter-to-date figures through October 15, 2026. These figures change nightly as new and late-arriving sold records are added; they are not final or official until the completed quarter is reviewed and frozen.

Ontario at a Glance — 2026 Q4

28 days
Median market time (CDOM, days)
+1 days vs 2026 Q3
53.4%
Sold within 30 days (%)
-1.2 pts vs 2026 Q3
19.9%
Sold at/above original asking (%)
-0.5 pts vs 2026 Q3
95.7%
Median sale-to-original-list ratio
-0.7 pts vs 2026 Q3
19.4%
Listings with a price reduction (%)
+2.4 pts vs 2026 Q3
5.7%
Median discount when below asking (%)
+1.0 pts vs 2026 Q3

City Rankings — 2026 Q4

All property types · sorted by median market time — click any column to re-sort, click a city for its history. Cities below the disclosure floor (50 eligible sales) are listed but not ranked.

Median market time: How many days the typical home takes to sell, counting from when it first hit the market (relistings included). Fewer days = hotter market.
What does each column mean?
Sales:
How many eligible home sales the numbers are based on — more sales = more reliable numbers.
Median market time:
How many days the typical home takes to sell, counting from when it first hit the market (relistings included). Fewer days = hotter market.
Sold ≤ 30 days:
Share of homes that sold within a month. Higher = hotter market.
At/above asking:
Share of homes that sold for the original asking price or more. Higher = sellers are getting their price (hotter market).
Sale ÷ original ask:
The typical sale price as a share of the first asking price. 100% = homes sell for exactly what sellers first asked; below 100% = buyers pay less.
Reduction rate:
Share of sold homes that cut their asking price at least once before selling. Higher = sellers are having to lower expectations (cooler market).
Median discount:
When a home does sell below asking, this is the typical discount buyers got.
City ranking with median market time, sold-within-30-days share, at-or-above-asking share, sale-to-original-list ratio, price-reduction rate and median discount. Click a column heading to sort; click a city for its historical trend.
1St. Catharines5533 days47.3%10.9%92.4%27.3%8.3%
2Mississauga17632 days48.3%18.2%94.9%18.8%6.3%
3London15130 days50.3%13.9%95.0%19.2%6.0%
4Vaughan10030 days51.0%12.0%94.5%12.0%5.9%
5Brampton15329 days52.3%19.6%96.1%18.3%5.4%
6Hamilton14627 days54.8%15.8%95.7%23.3%5.7%
7Richmond Hill6227 days53.2%35.5%97.6%6.5%5.4%
8Barrie6625 days59.1%13.6%96.4%15.2%4.2%
9Oakville6925 days55.1%13.0%95.1%24.6%6.8%
10Ottawa38125 days59.6%17.3%97.0%19.9%3.9%
11Burlington10222 days64.7%18.6%96.3%18.6%4.8%
12Toronto78822 days62.4%27.0%96.2%12.1%5.6%
13Kitchener5821 days70.7%39.7%98.1%19.0%4.9%
14Markham10321 days65.0%38.8%97.3%10.7%4.8%
15Guelph5221 days65.4%17.3%95.8%17.3%4.6%
16Oshawa5619 days66.1%26.8%97.0%12.5%4.7%
17Thunder Bay5315 days86.8%77.4%103.0%7.5%4.0%

The shaded column (median market time) is coloured from cooler (blue) to hotter (red) market. Scroll the table sideways for more columns — the city column stays put.

On the Map — Median market time

Each dot is a qualifying city, colored by median market time (cdom, days). Every mapped value also appears in the city ranking table above.

Median market time
CoolerHotter

City History — Toronto

A quarterly, plain-English view of how quickly Toronto homes sold (all property types), how often they sold at or above the original asking price, how often sellers reduced their price, and how many sales were included.

View quarter

2026 Q4 is still in progress: figures can change as additional sales are recorded, until the quarter is finalized.

What changed in 2026 Q4

The typical sale took 22 days, 1 day shorter than 2026 Q3. The at/above-asking share rose to 27.0%, while price reductions became more common.

Selling time−1 dayvs 2026 Q3
At/above asking+1.6 ptsvs 2026 Q3
Reduction rate+0.1 ptsvs 2026 Q3
Sample strengthStrong

788 eligible sales — 15.8× the disclosure floor. A larger sample doesn't remove seasonality or property-mix effects.

How many sales support this?
Total homes sold
788
−4,996 vs 2026 Q3
How quickly did homes sell?
Typical selling time
22 days
1 day faster vs 2026 Q3
How often was asking met?
Sold at/above asking
27.0%
+1.6 pts vs 2026 Q3
How often were prices cut?
Price reduction rate
12.1%
+0.1 pts vs 2026 Q3
How did sale compare to ask?
Sale-to-original-ask
96.2%
−0.4 pts vs 2026 Q3

1. Typical selling time

Median market time in days (relisting chains merged). Lower = homes generally sold faster.

01020302026 Q22026 Q32026 Q42026 Q2: Typical selling time 25d25d2026 Q3: Typical selling time 23d23d2026 Q4: Typical selling time 22d22d
Homes took 1 day less to sell than in 2026 Q3.

2. Pricing behaviour

The two pricing measures are split into separate charts because their ranges are very different.

Sold at or above original asking

Share of sales that met or beat the seller's starting price.

20%30%40%2026 Q22026 Q32026 Q42026 Q2: Sold at or above original asking 28.2%28.2%2026 Q3: Sold at or above original asking 25.4%25.4%2026 Q4: Sold at or above original asking 27.0%27.0%

Received a price reduction

Share of sold homes with at least one asking-price cut.

0%5%10%15%2026 Q22026 Q32026 Q42026 Q2: Received a price reduction 13.1%13.1%2026 Q3: Received a price reduction 12.0%12.0%2026 Q4: Received a price reduction 12.1%12.1%

These answer different questions — a reduction rate is not the opposite of an at-or-above-asking rate, so read each on its own. Note the two charts use different scales.

Sale ÷ original ask100% = matched the original asking price

2026 Q4: 96.2% — the typical sale closed 3.8% below the original asking price.

Compared with 2026 Q3, the at/above-asking share moved +1.6 pts and the reduction rate moved +0.1 pts.

3. Total homes sold

Sales volume shown separately so it can't distort or compete with price and market-time metrics.

02000400060002026 Q2: 6,191 eligible sales6,1912026 Q22026 Q3: 5,784 eligible sales5,7842026 Q32026 Q4: 788 eligible sales7882026 Q4
A larger sample usually produces a more stable market reading. Quarters marked * are below the disclosure floor and shown for context only.

For buyers

In 2026 Q4, 12.1% of sold homes had a price reduction, while 27.0% still sold at or above the original asking price. Read both together rather than treating either as the whole picture.

For sellers

The typical sold home took 22 days to sell, and the typical sale-to-original-ask ratio was 96.2%. That describes completed sales in this period; it doesn't guarantee the same result for an individual property.

2026 Q4 summary for Toronto: 788 homes sold; typical selling time 22 days; 27.0 percent sold at or above original asking; 12.1 percent received a price reduction; sale-to-original-ask ratio 96.2 percent.

Quarterly history for Toronto
QuarterSalesMedian market timeAt/above askingReduction rateSale ÷ original ask
2026 Q26,19125 days28.2%13.1%96.4%
2026 Q35,78423 days25.4%12.0%96.7%
2026 Q478822 days27.0%12.1%96.2%

* below the disclosure floor for that quarter.

Market speed — 2026 Q4

How fast homes actually sell, measured on full relisting chains — a home relisted three times counts its whole time on market, not just the last listing.

28 days
Median market time (CDOM, days) (Ontario)
7.5%
Sold within 7 days (%) (Ontario)
23.8%
Sold within 14 days (%) (Ontario)
53.4%
Sold within 30 days (%) (Ontario)
29.6%
On market over 60 days (%) (Ontario)
City ranking with median market time, sold-within-30-days share, at-or-above-asking share, sale-to-original-list ratio, price-reduction rate and median discount. Click a column heading to sort; click a city for its historical trend.
1St. Catharines5533 days3.6%14.5%47.3%36.4%
2Mississauga17632 days6.8%19.3%48.3%30.1%
3London15130 days5.3%20.5%50.3%30.5%
4Vaughan10030 days4.0%21.0%51.0%29.0%
5Brampton15329 days6.5%22.9%52.3%28.1%
6Hamilton14627 days5.5%24.0%54.8%28.8%
7Richmond Hill6227 days6.5%19.4%53.2%24.2%
8Barrie6625 days3.0%21.2%59.1%34.8%
9Oakville6925 days5.8%24.6%55.1%29.0%
10Ottawa38125 days6.8%25.2%59.6%22.3%

Asking-price performance — 2026 Q4

How sale prices compare with what sellers originally asked. Ratios use the first asking price of the relisting chain, so re-lists at a lower price cannot flatter the numbers.

19.9%
Sold at/above original asking (%) (Ontario)
95.7%
Median sale-to-original-list ratio (Ontario)
97.2%
Median sale-to-final-list ratio (Ontario)
City ranking with median market time, sold-within-30-days share, at-or-above-asking share, sale-to-original-list ratio, price-reduction rate and median discount. Click a column heading to sort; click a city for its historical trend.
1Thunder Bay5377.4%103.0%103.0%
2Kitchener5839.7%98.1%99.7%
3Markham10338.8%97.3%97.3%
4Richmond Hill6235.5%97.6%97.9%
5Toronto78827.0%96.2%97.1%
6Oshawa5626.8%97.0%97.9%
7Brampton15319.6%96.1%97.2%
8Burlington10218.6%96.3%97.4%
9Mississauga17618.2%94.9%97.0%
10Guelph5217.3%95.8%97.3%

Price reductions — 2026 Q4

How often sellers cut the price before selling, how quickly, and by how much. Total reduction sums every observed cut against the original asking price.

19.4%
Listings with a price reduction (%) (Ontario)
29 days
Median days to first reduction (Ontario)
4.1%
Median first reduction (%) (Ontario)
4.8%
Median total reduction (% of original ask) (Ontario)
City ranking with median market time, sold-within-30-days share, at-or-above-asking share, sale-to-original-list ratio, price-reduction rate and median discount. Click a column heading to sort; click a city for its historical trend.
1St. Catharines5527.3%26 days4.0%4.0%
2Oakville6924.6%35 days4.1%4.1%
3Hamilton14623.3%25 days3.7%4.4%
4Ottawa38119.9%21 days3.5%4.1%
5London15119.2%29 days4.8%6.0%
6Kitchener5819.0%19 days5.6%5.7%
7Mississauga17618.8%23 days4.0%4.2%
8Burlington10218.6%29 days3.6%3.6%
9Brampton15318.3%31 days3.4%4.8%
10Guelph5217.3%36 days3.4%4.1%

Buyer negotiating room — 2026 Q4

When homes sell below the original asking price, how large the gap typically is.

80.1%
Sold below original asking (%) (Ontario)
5.7%
Median discount when below asking (%) (Ontario)
City ranking with median market time, sold-within-30-days share, at-or-above-asking share, sale-to-original-list ratio, price-reduction rate and median discount. Click a column heading to sort; click a city for its historical trend.
1St. Catharines5589.1%8.3%
2Vaughan10088.0%5.9%
3Oakville6987.0%6.8%
4Barrie6686.4%4.2%
5London15186.1%6.0%
6Hamilton14684.2%5.7%
7Guelph5282.7%4.6%
8Ottawa38182.7%3.9%
9Mississauga17681.8%6.3%
10Burlington10281.4%4.8%

Reports & Guides

Deeper analysis built on the same finalized snapshots, plus evergreen explainers for the metrics on this page.

The fastest-selling housing markets in Ontario

Median market time rankings, speed distribution and the biggest movers.

Where Ontario homes sell above asking

Above-ask rates and both sale-to-list ratios — with the list-low context.

Ontario home price reductions

Where sellers are cutting, how fast, and how deep.

Homebuyer negotiating room

Where the asking-to-sold gap is widest — and what it can’t promise.

Detached home market heat

The detached segment: speed, asking-price performance and reductions.

Condo market heat

Condo apartments, tracked separately from freehold.

Townhouse market heat

Freehold rows and condo townhouses, side by side.

City report: Whitby

Ontario’s fastest-selling market, up close.

City report: Kitchener

The province’s most competitive market on asking price.

City report: Hamilton

A big market where price reductions run high.

Toronto neighbourhoods (pilot)

Neighbourhood-level market speed — our below-city pilot.

Guide: Days on market (DOM), explained

What DOM measures and how relistings distort it.

Guide: Original vs final asking price

Why the first ask is the honest benchmark.

Guide: Home price reductions

Reading cut history as a buyer; timing a cut as a seller.

Guide: Sale-to-list price ratio

How to read 98% vs 103% — and the list-low trap.

Archive & Downloads

Every published period, including the current quarter-to-date snapshot. Preliminary figures change nightly; finalized periods are frozen and never change without a visible revision. CSV downloads include the full city × property-type aggregate table (plus the Toronto neighbourhood pilot rows) with methodology version and usage notes.

Usage conditions: figures are free to cite and republish in aggregate form with attribution to “PropertyMesh Ontario Market Heat Index” and a link back to this page. Don’t present them as official board statistics, strip the disclosure flags, or use them as investment advice — full rules in the methodology.

Historical archive of Market Heat Index periods
PeriodStatusSales analysedFinalizedDownload
2026 Q4Preliminary · quarter to date4,640Through October 15, 2026CSV
2026 Q3FINAL35,180October 2, 2026CSV
2026 Q2REVISED (rev 2)36,197August 27, 2026CSV

Methodology & Notes

Source. MLS sold records for Ontario resale residential properties (detached, semi-detached, freehold and condo townhouses, condo apartments), refreshed nightly. Sales are dated by the purchase-contract date.

Market time. The MLS feed does not provide a reliable cumulative days-on-market figure, so we compute our own: when a home is relisted (same address and unit, prior listing ending within a validated window), the listings are chained together and time on market accumulates across the whole chain.

Asking-price ratios. Sale-to-original-list uses the first asking price of the relisting chain — a home relisted at a lower price cannot flatter the ratio. Sale-to-final-list uses the sold listing's last asking price.

Price reductions. Reduction metrics count observed price-decrease events; the total reduction sums all cuts against the original asking price (increases are ignored). Full event capture began in August 2026 — periods starting earlier are flagged as partial and understate reduction activity.

Disclosure floors. City figures require at least 50 eligible sales for the period (25 per property-type cut). Cells below the floor are shown as “insufficient data” rather than ranked — small samples produce unstable, misleading rates.

Coverage. Figures are based on TRREB (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board) transactions via the PropTx feed. Coverage of the Greater Toronto Area is comprehensive; outside the GTA, only sales involving a TRREB member are captured, so coverage is partial and cities below the disclosure floor are shown but not ranked. The series starts in Q3 2025; the feed's historical coverage before that is incomplete and would misstate the market. Toronto MLS districts are merged into Toronto, and London's feed subdivisions are merged into London.

Frozen periods. Completed quarters and years are finalized and frozen: their published values never change silently. Corrections are released as visible revisions with a reason.

Privacy & rights. Everything published here is an aggregate that meets the disclosure floors above. Individual sold prices are not shown on this page; listing-level sold data is available on PropertyMesh behind a free sign-in, per MLS data rules.

Citing this data. Free to cite with attribution to PropertyMesh (“PropertyMesh Ontario Market Heat Index”). Each archived period has a CSV download with the full aggregate table, methodology version and usage notes. For questions or custom cuts, contact us.